FINANCE BLOG

In recent weeks, given the remit of covering business money, I’ve said quite a lot about the state of the economy. I’m going to give it a break this week; either confidence will return or it won’t (and I still believe a lot of the problem has been about either confidence or more likely overconfidence when it comes to, say, valuing a house and the bank valuing its assets on the value of the mortgage) and that’s pretty much that.

What’s more disturbing is the report today that we’re increasingly victims of Internet Fraud. Granted, this week is the week of the Infosec show in London so there will be a lot of people talking up security stories out there but it remains a concern that official figures are underestimating how many people are losing money by so much.

The usual caveats apply and the calls for a Cybercrime unit make a lot of sense. In the meantime this is going to hit customer confidence very hard indeed - it was getting a lot of coverage on the Today programme, for example. Businesses that have downsized to take account of non-face-to-face trading could be in for an unpleasant reality check (elsewhere the BBC has reported - shock horror - that people are increasingly resorting to cash they actually have to fund their purchases).

It’s just what we didn’t need, and makes it a good time for Internet traders to look at and upgrade their security - this afternoon would be a good time.

OK, it’s starting to look serious. The economic outlook has been poor for a while now but a number of people, including me, have been suggesting that if we can steady our nerves all will be well. There was a rate cut last week and no doubt others will follow.

Then this happens. The Government, bless them, plan to help the banks by converting some of their mortgage debt into Government bonds.

This might have been a good idea a while ago but it has to be pointed out a similar move has done very little for the American economy. We now have a Government that is admitting openly that things are looking scary and imitating an only mildly successful business model to get us out of it.

Mind you, at least they’ve made a decision this time. We’ll see whether they manage to pull it around.

It has come to my attention that a number of readers may have been given the impression in one of my recent posts that there was no rate cut imminent.

This post was of course a figment of your imagination and if you can still see it you need a holiday, or something.

OK, OK, I was wrong…

…because a lot of this economic forecasting is giving me a headache.

It goes like this. Alistair Darling’s forecast for this year was for 1.7 per cent or so growth in the economy. It seems not everyone agrees with him and the actual figure is likely to be 1.5 per cent.

More seriously for Darling, the figure next year is also likely to be under two per cent when he’s been predicting a figure over it. And this could be an election year.

My question is really quite simple. What do people understand by the word ‘growth’? OK, we’re not growing as quickly as hoped and yes, the American economy is having its effect - as someone whose mortgage is likely to increase twice in one month if reports are to be believed, I’m going to become all too well acquainted with the idea.

But it’s still growth, isn’t it? Nobody - repeat nobody - is saying there’s going to be less money (although less on credit, which is probably no bad thing), more unemployment, more inflation. Check the dictionary. Growth is growth. And yet confidence is suffering, simply because virtually the longest sustained spurt of economic growth in living memory is coming to its natural end.

There needs to be a correction, certainly, and we all need to pay back our borrowings - as a nation and as individuals, to set things straight. I just don’t see us as doomed, that’s all.

Just when we thought things couldn’t look any bleaker for the markets (and by extension the business community), the Bank of England’s chief Mervyn King is playing down the chance of any rate cut next week.

I suppose you can see why; he has to think about inflation rather than rescuing the economy if indeed it is rescuable. Meanwhile everyone’s telling us not to panic just because of a little thing like First Direct refusing to offer mortgages to anyone who’s not already a customer.

Again, in isolation this makes sense and shouldn’t be a problem. Some of the other banks are experiencing problems so larger than normal numbers are gravitating towards them and they can’t cope. So they’re opting only to service existing customers. It’s all fine in isolation. It’s just that, looking at it as a whole, you can’t help but wonder how bad it’s likely to get before it picks up again.

Amid all the financial jollity that the Easter Season has become, it’s almost a pleasure to be on the receiving end of a good old-fashioned attempt at a scam. Yes, someone has tried to nick some of my precious IT kit.

I’m trying to sell a second-hand mobile phone through Amazon’s marketplace scheme (and this is relevant to smaller businesses since it’s a very efficient way of disposing of a few assets you no longer need). I won’t use this blog as a platform for my private sales, but it’s not rubbish.

So I had this query from someone, asking for its full spec. Innocently I sent them a note of the manufacturer’s website so they could make their own judgement rather than wait for a glossy spiel from me.

And I get what looks like confirmation from Amazon that I need to send the item off immediately and money will be with me by the middle of April, which would be their standard way of completing a sale. Except…the address is in Lagos. And we’ve all heard of Nigerian scams.

Let me be frank. I hate, hate, hate the fact that any country mentioned in an e-mail automatically raises the spectre of doubt in the recipient. I’d much rather trust people. Only…I remembered something. Amazon, when I sold a couple of CDs through it last week, has changed the format of its mails and no longer includes all the address details in them.

So I have another look, and what do you know - in their confirmation e-mail, ‘Amazon’ (which, now that I look carefully, doesn’t have an amazon.co.uk e-mail address) is suddenly putting two ‘p’s in ’shipment’. Then I get an e-mail from my alleged buyer and guess what - he wants me to confirm something he calls ’shippment’ when I’ve sent the goods off.

You can imagine the tone of the mail I sent back to him. The odd thing is that my reaction wasn’t so much anger as to go ‘aah…’