But the small year-on-year increase of 0.5% masks trouble for out of town superstores.

Year-on-year figures for out-of-town shopping fell by 3.1% in September, suggesting larger purchase items are becoming less appealing and the price of fuel is helping to persuade people to shop more locally.

Despite what could be one last impulse buying spree by the Great British public, Experian predicts the next 12 months will prove to be a very rough ride for most retailers.

Although the Footfall Index suggests people are spending less time visiting out of town DIY stores, Hitwise data shows online retailers may be taking up the slack.

Property websites have seen a steep falls in visitors lately, but home and gardens sites have seen traffic increase by over 20% in the last 12 months.

[image with thanks to ralphbijker @ flickr]

Good weather during April (I didn’t notice, Ed) and the timing of Easter are also credited with the small apparent upswing in shoppers.

However, Jonathan Foster, retail analyst at accounts Ernst & Young, said:

Despite slightly higher shopper numbers than expected in April, the outlook remains gloomy for the retail sector. We’re not only seeing a record number of profit warnings (22 so far this year from the FTSE General Retailers Index), but an alarming number of retail companies are also falling into administration.

Data also released this week by the British Shops and Stores Association (bssa) revealed disappointing Easter trading among reatilers, down 0.2% during Q1 compared to the same period last year.

There seems nevertheless to be a polarisation of performance according to bssa figures. The best performing retailers (45% of the total) showing a rise in performance of 13.4%, while the remaining 55% saw an average percentage decrease of -11.4%.

This data suggests that rather than recession, perhaps there’ll simply be a shakeout on the high street as weaker players find less support from the credit cards of carefree shoppers.

[Picture thanks to: Dr Max]

According to the latest figures from Experian’s FootFall Index, the number of shopping visits declined year-on-year by 1.5%.  This is clearly becoming a trend as its the seventh consecutive month that such a fall has been recorded.

Commenting on the figures, Jonathan Foster at accountants Ernst and young said:

After a better than expected discount driven January, February’s poor figures underline the tough trading conditions for UK retailers. With little change in consumer sentiment in 2008, the sector outlook is gloomy, particularly for big ticket goods such as electricals and furniture – so we expect further profit warnings and casualties are inevitable

Looks like the consumer is no longer willing or able to prop up UK economic growth.

The seasonally adjusted index for retail sales grew by just 0.4% during the three months to December 2007 compared to the previous three month period.  Between November and December, however, the volume of sales fell by 0.4%.

A separate study released yesterday by Experian revealed that only a couple of weeks into the January sales its Retail Footfall Index had seen a week-on-week decrease of 4.4%.

What does all this really mean for the small business owner, particularly the small retailer.  Well, slowly but surely signs of a slow down are gathering.  But let’s just hope it’s just that – a slow down, not a recession. 

Here’s to some justified caution amongst small businesses and consumers during 2008.

According to Experian‘s Retail Footfall Index shopping on the high street during November 2007 was some 3% below what it was a year ago.  By comparison Hitwise’s tracking of shopping and classified sites during the same month reveals a massive 22.4% rise.

Martin Davis of Experian says:

Our research suggests that the relatively poor show on the high street is due to shifting channel choice rather than declines in spending.  Despite fragile financial markets, uncertainty about house prices and the likelihood of rising utility bills, consumer spending this Christmas is likely to exceed that of last year.

Brave words indeed.  It’ll be interesting to hear reports on shopping activity over the next couple of weeks from retailers both online and off.